Romney Makes GOP History

Today, Mitt Romney became the first non-incumbent Republican candidate to win both the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primaries. No Republicans in the past other than incumbent Republican Presidents have won both nominating battle states. Beating some expectations of at least a closer plurality because of the serious beatings from the past days after his rivals bashed him over his “I love firing people” comments, Romney swung hard and won comfortably over his nearest rival, Ron Paul, as of posting time by over 10 percentage points.

Now, the nominating contest will go to the South where Romney’s rivals will still pounce him on his past business experience and his record as a conservative. We should note that after New Hampshire, we didn’t saw a clear alternative to Romney, in contrast to Iowa where Rick Santorum surged on the last minute. Though we saw a little surge at the last minute through Jon Huntsman, it was not strong enough for him to at least topple Ron Paul in the second place. Though finished third, Huntsman’s strong showing convinced him personally to continue the battle through South Carolina and possibly Florida.

With Romney, Paul and Huntsman clearly moving forward, the rest of the pack led by Newt Gingrich, Santorum and Rick Perry will definitely vie and divide for the influential evangelicals and the social conservative votes that may lead to another slim-plurality Romney victory. But a clear, strong South Carolina victory may seal the deal for a Romney nomination.

And Iowa’s Winner is…

Last night’s nail-biting Iowa Caucus ended still in a nail-biting action with Mitt Romney winning over Iowa flavor of the week, Rick Santorum who had momentum going into the primaries. Romney won by 8 votes. It will ultimately go down as the closest plurality in any presidential primary or caucus elections in the United States.

The day before the Iowa Caucus, we boldly predicted Romney will win by a small margin with Santorum and Paul at second and third places respectively. And today, now we know the history that day created.

Rightly Point of View predicted a slim Romney victory in Iowa.

The people of Iowa once again proved that they are the best in the country to get to know presidential candidates, to get to know the caliber of a candidate and those who are deserving to go forward into the primaries and other caucuses.

We can say that one victim of this process was Texas Governor Rick Perry, after a poor 5th place finish, he stated that he’s returning to Texas to reassess his campaign, hinting that he might pull out from the running. Another possible victim was Iowa native Michele Bachmann who publicly said that she is going forward after a poor 6th place finish but is facing uncertainty as she moves forward to New Hampshire and South Carolina.

As we look forward to another round of political battle and with an independent-leaning New Hampshire as a battlefield, we expect more sharper attacks and more clearer contrasting between candidates. We could say that the battle between third place finisher Ron Paul and fourth place finisher New Gingrich will pounce on Romney and Santorum this week.

Who do you think will win the 2012 Iowa Caucus?

With just one week to go before the Republican presidential nominating race is officially underway, Rightly Point of View is polling everyone, who do you think will win the first in the nation, 2012 Iowa Caucus?

Looking For An Iowa Surprise

With one week to go for the first voting and as the final stretch of campaigning for the GOP presidential nomination starts  to dwindle, over the past weeks we have seen a see-saw of front-runners especially in the first in the nation caucus state of Iowa. As of posting time, according to Real Clear Politics Ron Paul leads possible Iowa Republican Caucus voters by 1.3% over consistent second placer, Mitt Romney who’s surrogates and affiliated PACs bombarded once Iowa frontrunner and still national frontrunner according to latest RCP’s Poll Averages Newt Gingrich a barrage of negative ads on TV and radio questioning his record and connection to Washington insiders.

Recently, 2008 Iowa Caucus winner former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee predicted that Ron Paul, the libertarian Texas Congressman would win, saying that “if the weather is bad and it’s real tough to get out, Ron Paul would win.” While Huckabee said that Paul would win if a snow blizzard or any weather-related situation happens, he also floated the possibility of a Romney Iowa victory if the weather is nice. He praised both camp’s organizational groundwork in Iowa for a thrilling Iowa Caucus on Tuesday.

Another factor for a more unpredictable and a possible surprise is a large chunk of undecided voters hovering at around 10% — this will definitely pull an upset or boost a momentum for any candidate. Other presidential candidates Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann are giving everything they’ve got during this final push to win or place in a decent spot on Caucus day to give them enough momentum to go to the other early voting states of New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.

Iowa Republicans has been traditionally a social conservative voting state and historically has a mixed record of crowned choices. In the past 9 Caucuses, Iowa chose the eventual Republican nominee 6 times with the exception of 1980 where they chose George H.W. Bush over Ronald Reagan, 1998 with Bob Dole over George H.W. Bush and recently in 2008 with Mike Huckabee over John McCain.

The Anti-Romney Candidate

Over the course of summer, fall into the winter, we saw a see-saw of potential candidates who presented themselves as the alternative to the consistent first-second placer in the polls, Mitt Romney as Conservatives all over the nation voiced skepticism on a possibility of a more politically moderate Romney nomination.

First, we saw Tea Party darling Michele Bachmann’s early poll surge in her candidacy, even winning Iowa’s almost beauty pageant, the Ames Straw Poll in August. Then Rick Perry came into the picture, with his Texan cowboy swagger and built-up reputation and record of a hard-core Texan conservative governor, he stole Bachmann’s short-lived poll bump and Ames win. The hype propelled Perry into the top of the national polls, overwhelming Romney’s polling base. But as he descended into the national stage, Governor Perry’s early showing was just a hype, during the debates, he stumbled eventually showing as too cocky and some instances not prepared at all. The debates along with his fellow candidates showed Perry as an intellectual lightweight compared to rivals Romney, Ron Paul, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich.

The debates helped candidates to lay out their proposals and visions for their respective presidential campaigns. One candidate who portrayed himself as a legitimate Mitt Romney alternative was Herman Cain, as Rick Perry stumbled and sweat at the national spotlight, during the debates, Cain’s message was consistent, he continuously introduces himself as a non-politician and a successful businessman who have the right executive experience for the job. Along with his background was his “9-9-9 Plan,” his flat tax plan. But as he soared at the polls, the national media and fellow candidates bombarded Cain with skepticism and sharp criticism of his “9-9-9 Plan.” Then over a year before the elections, Herman Cain was caught for an October surprise as he was accused of sexual harassment to women during his stint as the National Restaurant Association’s top honcho.

As Herman Cain fought the accusations against him left and right, one candidate emerged as the Anti-Romney and surged into the polls in just a short period of time, Speaker Newt Gingrich. Over the summer, political pundits brushed off Gingrich’s candidacy because of the string of resignations from his campaign at the early voting and caucus states. During the series of debates, the public saw Speaker Gingrich’s mastery of the issues and his strict adherence to Ronald Reagan’s commandment of not attacking fellow Republicans.

Right now, we don’t know if Speaker Gingrich will hold his current frontrunner status as the title of the “Anti-Romney Candidate” is still very much up for grabs. With still over 5 weeks to go before the first presidential caucus, other candidates will still have enough free national air-time and golden opportunities to spread their campaign message and totally change the dynamics of this election season as the Anti-Romney Candidate is still not yet clearly chosen.

Rightly POV Online Straw Poll Results

Today, we are releasing the results of our unscientific online straw poll of Republican presidential candidates. The results of the month-long polling are the following:

Rightly Point of View Online Republican Straw Poll (October 12-November 12, 2011) Results

Ron Paul	4,876	90%
Herman Cain	246	5%
Mitt Romney	87	2%
Rick Perry	74	1%
Gary Johnson	50	1%
Newt Gingrich	48	1%
Jon Huntsman	32	1%
Michele Bachmann	12	0%
Rick Santorum	10	0%
Buddy Roemer	1	0%

 

Our Straw Poll and Ron Paul’s Ever Loyal Supporters

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul is very fortunate to have a strong grassroot following around the nation. One of the best evidence is our very own online straw poll which we are currently conducting and will be open to the public for a month. Right now, Ron Paul’s outpouring support has overwhelmed other candidates’ vote by a mile. As of this post, the two-time presidential candidate (now running for his third) and Texas Congressman has over 3,600 votes or 87% of the votes as to his not-so-closest rival and current national opinion polls front-runner Herman Cain registering with only 6% of the total votes cast.

I am amazed and astonished on how fast the Paulites organized themselves by using Facebook, emails, Twitter and other social media organizations shared the link to our blog thus swamping the poll results into a massive flood show of online support. Even though this straw poll is not very scientific, I started this poll to measure the excitement of the Republican candidates’ supporters and to measure the broad online appeal of every Republican candidate at this moment in the election season. I believe every social media reach of every presidential candidate is essential in any political campaign at this day and age because with a strong grassroot online support and with the use of different technology as the Ron Paul supporters showed, they can easily spread the message of any politician that would be very critical most especially if the election would be a close one.

Though the straw poll is still open for less than a month to go, the results may very be the same since the Paulites have taken a very comfortable lead over the rest of the pack who only registered single digits. This effort maybe a very small victory for thousands of Ron Paul’s supporters but this is definitely a morale booster for those who believe in Ron’s message of liberty and a strong message that Paulites are here to support Ron Paul for the long run.

Rightly Point of View GOP Straw Poll 2011

Today, Rightly Point of View will start conducting our own online Republican Straw Poll and it will be open to the public for a month until November 12, 2011. If you are an avid supporter of any presidential candidate specified in the straw poll, don’t forget to vote. Rightly Point of View will release the results of this straw poll to the public and their respective campaign organizations on November 12, 2011 at 9:00am (Hawaii Standard Time). Thank you.

The POV on the Hawaii US Senate Race

Next year will be a pivotal year for political junkies most especially from Hawaii because for the first time in a generation that a US Senate seat from Hawaii will be wide open for the taking. Both political parties currently fielded their best and brightest senatoriables from their stables with their own unique advantages and disadvantages. Here’s my point of view on the Hawaii US Senate Race.

US Congresswoman Mazie Hirono

On the left side of the political aisle, the Democrats are concentrated on two political powerhouses who wanted to succeed the retiring Daniel Akaka next year. Far-left activists and Democratic establishment supporters cheer current US Congresswoman Mazie Hirono on her journey to carry the Democratic banner by August of next year. Mazie Hirono has powerful appeal to the unions who over the years have heavily contributed financially to her political campaigns in the past. These union backings also correspond a large union voting block that can also help her on her grassroot organization and cashing in on fundraising. Another boost to her campaign are the apparent endorsements from the two Hawaii US Senators Daniel Inouye telling journalists that “he would vote for Hirono” and Daniel Akaka who have attended Hirono fundraisers. However, Hirono is painted now to be a very typical Washington political insider over the years and has been not really very accessible to her constituents in contrast to her Congressional predecessor and current Senate primary rival Ed Case who regularly conduct town hall meetings whenever on the islands. A big concern on Hirono’s electability is her inconsistent record on reaching out to political independents as she is one of the most liberal members in the US Congress. A poll released by the Ed Case campaign last August showed that on a hypothetical match-up against Republican Linda Lingle, Mazie Hirono would lose to Lingle by 5 points.

Former US Congressman Ed Case

Ed Case on the other hand is considered a Democratic maverick. He is known to break away from the liberal norm and had a record of teaming up with Republicans on a number of issues during his stint as one of Hawaii’s US Representatives. Ed Case is what you can consider a Blue Dog Democrat that has a broad appeal to electorates most especially to political independents during the general election in November. During his campaign in 2006 to challenge the incumbent Daniel Akaka during the Democratic primaries, Case has ruffled the feathers of the Democratic establishment much to the irate of Hawaii’s Senior Senator Daniel Inouye who campaign against Case’s journey to Capitol Hill. Even after 6 years later, Democratic bigwigs and most big union groups doesn’t want Case to win this primary battle against Hirono still lingering ill-feelings due to the Akaka-Case primary battle. Case and Hirono had a history of primary battles before. In 2002, Hirono and Case fought for the Democratic nomination for the Hawaii Governorship in which Hirono won the nomination but ultimately lost to Linda Lingle during the general elections. Ed Case has an uphill battle with most of the party establishments supporting Hirono, he will need to create a broad fundraising and grassroot network that will closely rival Hirono’s broad union and left-wing activist support. In a poll released last August Case’s broad appeal to a general electorate proved to be effective and much alive as a hypothetical match-up suggest that he will beat Linda Lingle by a comfortable margin.

Former Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle

From the right side of the political aisle, Republicans are cheering for Linda Lingle, the former two-time Governor of Hawaii to throw her hat officially on the race for the US Senate. And today, she officially entered the race with much excitement from the right. Lingle is expected to easily clinch the Republican nomination next year and will just cruise around the state as she watches the two Democratic rivals, Mazie Hirono and Ed Case fight hard for the nomination of their party. She is the first woman and the first Republican in 40 years to be elected as Governor of the state and will strongly use her experience as chief executive to contrast her Democratic rivals and is considered the strongest electable Republican for the US Senate. She was reelected to the Governorship in 2006 with over 60% of the vote from a strongly traditionally Democratic blue state with the largest margin in history from her closest opponent. During her reelection campaign for Washington Place in 2006, she raised a $6 Million war-chest which can potentially be raised again and even more now that she publicly decided to run for the US Senate. Her strongest asset and probably her biggest liability is her mixed record of hits and misses on her eight years as Governor.

The Hawaii Senate Seat will be one of the few open seats in play for the general elections that will put the state in a very important column of must-win seats for both parties. Whoever will be the Democratic nominee will truly face a powerful political machine that Lingle will bring through her connections and record as Governor of Hawaii for eight years. That will be a general election battle that is also once in a generation in the making.

The Race To Become Hawaii’s Junior Senator

US Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HI) is set to retire from the US Senate. He announced last February of this year that he is not running for reelection. Akaka has served as Hawaii's Junior Senator since 1990.

As the retirement of Hawaii’s Junior US Senator Daniel Akaka is sealed by the aging Senator himself. There are some political powerhouses in both Democratic and Republican Parties in Hawaii are trying to vie for Akaka’s soon-to-be vacant seat in 2013.

Democratic young bloods who wanted to become the next US Senator from Hawaii have started their campaigns and started to make some waves all over the state. Let’s start with the current Democratic frontrunner, former US Congressman Ed Case. Case who challenged Akaka at the 2006 primaries is seen as the strongest Democratic candidate to succeed Akaka because of his appeal to a broad electorate most especially to political independents. His previous service as US Congressman representing Hawaii 2nd Congressional District (Rural Hawaii) also makes him one of the most logical choice to succeed the 87 year-old Junior Senator.

Another senatoriable from the Democratic stable is the current US Representative from the 2nd Congressional District and Case’s successor, Mazie Hirono. She is considered one of the most liberal members of US Congress and has a strong union-backing in the state. Prior to her service in the US House, she previously served as the state’s Lieutenant Governor for two terms under Governor Ben Cayetano. Her record in the US House is definitely a great report card for traditional liberal activists in the state who can be used for a strong grass-root network.

A third strong candidate to potentially succeed Akaka’s seat is from the Republican Party. Former Governor of Hawaii Linda Lingle said that “she already has made it clear that she has Daniel Akaka’s U.S. Senate seat in her sights in 2012.” Lingle who served as Hawaii’s Governor for eight years is considered the strongest candidate from the GOP. Lingle was the first Republican Governor in 40 years and was reelected to the Governorship with over 60% of the vote from a strongly traditionally blue state with the largest margin from her closest opponent. During her reelection campaign for Washington Place n 2006, she raised a $6 Million war-chest which can potentially raised again if she publicly decides to run for the US Senate.

Next year’s general and primary elections will truly be an exciting and a nail-biter. Hawaii-born President Barack Obama will be up on the ballots and Hawaii will choose its next US Senator who can be the next leader of Hawaii’s congressional delegation for generations to come underlining the real importance of the election.